Operational Unpredictability and Deterrence

A policy directive issued in 2018 called on the American armed forces to act in ways that are harder for rivals to anticipate, on the theory that this would discourage hostile action against nations allied with the U.S. This study examines whether and how U.S. forces could use unpredictable deployments, force positioning, and operational choices to dissuade adversaries. It also weighs the dangers that such an approach could carry.