Stumbling giant

Many recent books and articles treat China's march to worldwide dominance as all but certain. Timothy Beardson challenges that consensus, setting out the wide range of difficulties China now faces and arguing that its leaders are not responding adequately. In his view, these pressures will frustrate Beijing's aspiration to become the globe's leading power.

Beardson examines a long list of strains. The population is aging relentlessly, the sex ratio is badly skewed, the workforce is contracting, and the total population may begin to fall. Social unrest is rising, the environment has been badly damaged, and the economy relies on low-technology production with too little innovation. Beyond these, the country lacks a dependable welfare safety net, its system of governance has become rigid, and radical Islam poses a threat along its borders.

Drawing on research and more than thirty-five years of living and working in Asia, the author offers a firsthand, measured account. He credits China's historic accomplishments while tempering talk of imminent hegemony with a blunt, realistic assessment.