The Simulation Unplugged

Zouev takes a close look at the simulation argument advanced by Nick Bostrom. That reasoning holds that one of three claims must be true. The first is that nearly every civilization fails to reach a posthuman phase. The second is that almost no posthuman society would bother running ancestor simulations. The third is that we are, with near certainty, living inside a computer simulation.

Zouev tests the argument's soundness by challenging some of its premises, then proposes several revisions to address the weaknesses found. Zouev also contends that Bostrom is mistaken to treat the three possibilities as equally likely. Instead, Zouev argues for giving the first option greater weight, since it depends on the fewest speculative leaps and extra assumptions.

The opening section introduces the key concepts and explains why the simulation argument deserves philosophical attention. The second section examines the two core assumptions on which Bostrom's reasoning rests. The third section sets out the argument in formal mathematical terms, then discusses several of its problems and suggests ways of overcoming them. The final section considers each of the three outcomes and how they should be interpreted.

Zouev concludes by agreeing with Bostrom on one point: the simulation hypothesis, however improbable, differs in kind from other familiar sceptical scenarios.